How Much Can a 16kWh Home Battery Save on Electricity Bills
Based on the publicly available data from Eskom, South Africa’s national electricity company: Although the unplanned capability loss factor (UCLF) has decreased compared to the same period last year (Figure 1), this effect has been offset by an increase in planned capability loss factor (PCLF) compared to the same period last year (Figure 2). As a result, the availability of Eskom’s generating units (EAF) this year is similar to that of the same period last year (Figure 3).
Why are there fewer power outages this year than last year?
Eshom Unplanned Capacity Load Factor (UCLF) From Week 1 2023 To Date
Eshom Planned Capacity Load Factor (UCLF) From Week 1 2023 To Date
Eshom Energy Availability Factor (EAF) From Week 1 2021 To Date
According to the analysis, the reasons can be summarized as follows:
- South Africa’s weak economy has led to roughly flat overall electricity demand;
- Eskom and municipal electricity prices have risen rapidly over the years, at two to three times the rate of inflation, suppressing demand for Eskom’s generation;
- Frequent power outages and low reliability of Eskom and the municipal grid, especially in the past four years, have had a negative impact on electricity supply and greatly affected user confidence;
- Electricity customers are responding by turning to self-generation and alternative energy sources, including rooftop solar PV, battery energy storage, cooking gas, solar hot water, energy efficiency and a general reduction in demand for grid electricity;
- Large-scale renewable energy and battery energy storage plants are being connected to the grid one after another, and this trend is accelerating.
- Impact on the ruling party ANC’s election prospects. The ANC itself has also stated that frequent power outages on the eve of the 2021 general election have caused serious harm to it, so a stable power supply will benefit it.
Total Electricty Produced By Eskom
Eskom has been in a death spiral of price increases and load shedding:
All of these reasons have eased the burden that Eskom has struggled to cope with since 2019, resulting in a significant drop in the frequency and intensity of load shedding this year compared to the same period last year.
However, it still cannot change the fact that Eskom has been in a death spiral of rising prices and load shedding: power supply instability and load shedding have led customers to turn to alternative energy sources, resulting in a drop in Eskom sales, which has led to rising electricity prices in the hope of recovering Eskom’s fixed costs from the drop in sales, but high electricity prices and unstable supply will prompt users to seek other energy sources such as solar energy and energy storage. At the same time, the utility company has also been caught in a debt spiral, and the government bailout from the National Treasury has temporarily stopped the company from taking on new debt. Especially with the continuous decline in prices of solar and energy storage products in recent years, this series of factors has constituted a downward death spiral, and the ESKOM Galaxy Battleship has missed the last chance to get out of the death spiral.
At the same time, the Treasury is now forcing Eskom and the entire power supply industry to restructure, demerge, and strengthen the role of the private sector in the financing, construction, operation and maintenance of power generation and transmission infrastructure. (Details are detailed in the previous issue of Xiaozhi’s content “Exclusive Disclosure: The split of South Africa’s national power company is about to be implemented, which will release the demand for independent power producers”) This should not be seen as the privatization of Eskom, but rather as the development of financial institutions, commercial banks, pension funds, other financial institutions, enterprises, industry and the public. More public participation in public utility business.
In terms of transmission, we have seen the establishment of a nominally independent state-owned National Transmission Operator (NTCSA), an independent market operator (IMO) and a power market in South Africa. We may also see that because Eskom does not have sufficient resources and funds, new high-voltage transmission corridors will be financed, built, operated and maintained through public-private partnership (PPP) concessions (such as toll road concessions). (This also puts forward higher requirements for Chinese companies that want to participate in investment and construction. How to change the current situation where Western companies dominate and we do the hard work and only eat the soup; how to do a good job in project compliance management, how to legally obtain bidding qualifications, how to establish joint ventures, and a series of other issues; how to meet BEEE qualifications. If you need consultation, please send orders to Xiaozhi)
In the field of power generation, we have seen the emergence of a new diversified and competitive power generation industry, PPP power generation projects, municipal power generation projects, hundreds of independent power producers (IPPs) and thousands of large, medium and small “prosumers” (customers who are both power producers and consumers).
Eskom South Africa is no longer the sole buyer of electricity from its own generators and independent power plants. There is a growing trend towards independent power producers, generator owners and traders transferring and trading electricity directly to a wide range of customers on the public grid in southern Africa.
South Africa’s electricity sector is undergoing a fundamental change that is beginning to catch up with the electricity sector in many other parts of the world. This change is now underway, but the key to its success will depend on whether the new government after the election will continue the reform policy that is still in its infancy. But there is reason for optimism. The pace of reform in South Africa’s electricity supply industry is moving forward steadily, driven by the needs of decarbonization and security of supply and the realities of economic needs. Parliament has also reached a consensus on the passage of the long-awaited Electricity Regulation Amendment Bill. Once enacted, the new bill will provide the necessary legal, policy, regulatory and planning framework for the envisaged reforms and South Africa’s future electricity supply industry.
However, it remains to be seen whether the South African National Electricity Corporation (Eskom) and the municipal and distribution industries will cooperate with the necessary reforms, which are still unresolved. This thorny issue remains unresolved.
Solar energy has great potential to fill the gap in electricity supply.
South Africa is one of the countries with the most sunshine. Most parts of South Africa have more than 2,500 hours of sunshine per year, and the average solar radiation level per day is between 4.5 and 6.5 kWh/㎡. The global average solar radiation for 24 hours per year is 220 W/㎡. Affected by the prevailing westerly winds, South Africa also has extremely rich wind resources, with an average annual wind speed of 9-10 M/S in the central and southern plateau areas. Solar and wind energy are considered to be the most readily available resources in South Africa, and have great potential for making up for power shortages and improving energy structure.